Colorado is set to experience considerable precipitation beginning Thursday, with southwestern regions, particularly the San Juan Mountains, expected to receive the most significant snowfall. The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has already issued warnings for backcountry users, citing potential risks associated with the incoming weather. As daytime moisture transitions into snow with dropping nighttime temperatures, additional chances for snow are forecast for Friday and Saturday in specific parts of the state.
According to the National Weather Service, the San Juans in southwestern Colorado are projected to be hit hardest, with snow totals over the next few days likely ranging from six to 18 inches. The Sawatch Range and the Mosquito Range in the central mountains could see approximately four to eight inches of snow. For other areas, including those closer to the Front Range, expected accumulation is limited to a few inches or less under this scenario.
Specific reports from OpenSnow indicate that Silverton could accumulate around 18 inches of snow over the next five days, followed by Wolf Creek with about 9 inches and Monarch Mountain with 7 inches. This particular round of snow is not expected to significantly impact ski areas nearer to the Front Range, such as Arapahoe Basin and Keystone, though any snowfall could still bolster their ongoing snowmaking efforts.
A less probable, but more impactful, “high-end” snowfall forecast presents a scenario with deeper and more widespread snow totals, though it carries about a 10 percent chance of occurring. In this situation, limited high-elevation portions of the San Juans could see accumulations between 18 to 24 inches through Sunday morning, with 12 to 18 inches becoming more widespread throughout that region. This high-end scenario also suggests fairly widespread totals of six to 12 inches for the Sawatch, Mosquito, and Elk ranges near Aspen. Additionally, the Sangre de Cristos could end up with six to eight inches of snow, compared to the three to six inches anticipated in the more likely forecast.
As of October 22, Colorado’s snowpack stands at approximately 147 percent of the norm for this date. While early-season figures are not a definitive indicator of the winter ahead, this represents positive news following notably dry months last winter. Looking further ahead, more widespread snow is expected around next weekend, extending into the early days of November.
For residents and visitors of Estes Park and the surrounding Front Range communities, while the most substantial snowfall is concentrated in the state's southern and central mountains, awareness of these regional weather patterns is important, especially for those planning travel into the higher elevations across Colorado where avalanche risks are being monitored.